* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP902025 10/07/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 33 38 45 55 62 68 72 69 65 63 61 55 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 28 23 25 26 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 24 26 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 10 11 15 20 20 23 23 27 20 10 8 13 29 40 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 8 6 5 2 3 4 5 4 0 -1 -6 1 3 6 2 SHEAR DIR 49 54 51 40 18 26 39 59 62 83 73 46 349 246 243 250 257 SST (C) 29.9 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.8 30.2 30.0 29.4 29.9 30.6 30.8 31.2 31.5 31.4 30.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 168 168 169 169 170 166 166 160 166 174 173 172 172 173 172 154 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -53.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -51.6 -51.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 8 5 9 6 9 6 7 0 700-500 MB RH 82 81 83 84 82 84 84 83 82 79 74 67 59 54 52 55 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 8 9 10 14 17 22 26 24 21 19 17 11 7 850 MB ENV VOR 59 61 59 56 65 65 78 76 68 68 55 52 64 54 6 -16 3 200 MB DIV 92 102 113 97 91 82 57 59 28 11 7 5 10 31 10 42 108 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 8 7 -1 -5 -4 0 -4 19 30 LAND (KM) 128 103 69 52 19 -15 -34 -146 -151 -124 -85 60 -26 -189 -453 -717 -770 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.0 16.0 16.7 17.2 18.0 19.1 20.8 23.1 25.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.8 92.3 92.5 92.8 93.0 93.7 95.0 96.9 99.2 101.8 104.6 107.1 108.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 7 8 11 13 15 16 14 12 11 14 19 25 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 31 32 34 33 25 32 23 30 50 39 33 12 11 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 10. 17. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. 35. 39. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 14. 21. 25. 21. 15. 11. 9. 3. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 13. 20. 30. 37. 43. 47. 44. 40. 38. 36. 30. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.9 91.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 10/07/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.95 9.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.30 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.65 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.63 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.4% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 21.5% 20.2% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 27.2% 12.3% 8.8% 0.9% 13.9% 15.7% 7.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 6.7% 3.2% 0.7% 0.0% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 19.5% 11.2% 3.2% 0.3% 12.3% 12.5% 2.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 10/07/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##