* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP902025 08/03/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 45 56 65 67 63 59 53 47 43 38 36 36 36 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 45 56 65 67 63 59 53 47 43 38 36 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 39 43 43 40 36 32 29 26 24 22 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 2 4 7 6 9 6 8 8 8 9 11 11 7 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 2 0 -3 -3 0 0 3 1 3 -2 SHEAR DIR 44 68 87 141 79 118 142 188 182 143 159 164 171 170 180 233 239 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.9 27.1 26.0 25.3 24.1 25.0 24.0 23.3 23.7 23.9 24.8 25.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 144 141 144 136 125 118 106 115 105 97 101 102 112 117 124 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 68 67 68 71 71 73 71 67 62 56 52 49 47 47 44 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 18 20 23 24 24 21 20 18 16 15 14 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 28 40 52 68 69 75 76 79 70 70 55 42 22 6 -23 200 MB DIV 55 70 56 51 21 3 14 29 4 -7 -13 -4 -11 -5 -17 -18 -8 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -2 -1 1 -4 1 6 5 9 2 6 LAND (KM) 1326 1348 1381 1402 1431 1490 1556 1649 1843 2077 1981 1643 1307 1039 832 640 480 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 11 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 30 29 27 16 7 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 21. 25. 28. 28. 28. 26. 23. 21. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 12. 9. 7. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 20. 31. 40. 42. 38. 34. 28. 22. 18. 13. 11. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.1 115.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 08/03/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.75 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.84 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -5.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.1% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 20.3% 18.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 21.2% 10.2% 5.1% 1.4% 6.2% 4.0% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 14.4% 9.1% 1.7% 0.5% 8.8% 7.6% 2.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 23.0% 12.0% 3.0% 1.0% 13.0% 26.0% 9.0% SDCON: 1.0% 18.7% 10.5% 2.3% 0.7% 10.9% 16.8% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 08/03/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##