* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP902025 08/03/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 46 58 69 72 70 63 55 51 45 41 39 37 36 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 46 58 69 72 70 63 55 51 45 41 39 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 40 47 50 48 43 38 33 30 26 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 2 2 2 6 8 10 11 11 12 11 10 11 7 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 0 -1 -3 -7 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 2 0 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 50 43 89 116 43 110 136 159 177 155 158 169 158 162 175 243 243 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 26.5 26.1 25.2 25.1 24.4 23.5 23.7 24.0 24.7 25.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 144 141 140 141 130 126 117 116 109 99 101 104 111 116 124 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 68 65 65 68 69 73 71 67 62 57 53 49 51 46 44 40 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 17 19 22 22 22 20 17 16 15 14 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 19 19 19 28 39 64 71 86 84 77 74 66 59 42 20 -3 -11 200 MB DIV 63 46 47 38 28 0 -13 24 7 -15 0 -8 -13 2 11 -14 5 700-850 TADV -2 0 -3 -3 -3 -1 0 0 -3 -1 -6 -2 3 6 3 9 3 LAND (KM) 1314 1332 1362 1393 1432 1482 1536 1629 1775 1984 2101 1759 1422 1111 840 595 449 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 13 13 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 30 29 30 30 29 20 13 4 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 27. 29. 30. 30. 28. 25. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 11. 14. 15. 12. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 21. 33. 44. 47. 45. 38. 30. 26. 20. 16. 14. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 114.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 08/03/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.75 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.81 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 20.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 32.7% 16.3% 10.2% 2.8% 13.7% 13.4% 13.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 19.3% 11.5% 3.4% 0.9% 12.0% 11.2% 4.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 21.0% 11.0% 3.0% 1.0% 15.0% 29.0% 15.0% SDCON: 1.2% 20.1% 11.2% 3.2% 0.9% 13.5% 20.1% 9.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 08/03/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##