* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP902025 08/03/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 43 50 62 73 81 82 78 71 64 56 48 43 40 35 V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 43 50 62 73 81 82 78 71 64 56 48 43 40 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 34 38 47 57 65 65 58 49 41 36 31 27 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 13 13 11 10 4 3 7 9 8 8 12 9 11 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 0 0 3 0 0 -2 -1 1 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 66 58 63 62 46 41 27 313 179 173 147 143 159 179 184 175 181 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.7 27.6 24.8 23.9 23.1 22.9 23.0 23.5 24.6 25.1 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 141 138 137 142 142 113 104 96 94 95 100 111 116 122 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 63 62 64 62 63 67 71 73 68 63 58 54 49 47 44 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 14 16 19 22 24 26 25 23 21 19 17 15 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 6 16 23 28 31 21 39 43 58 62 68 76 72 60 40 32 3 200 MB DIV 68 80 72 70 77 49 23 7 31 7 0 -9 0 0 -4 15 -3 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -2 2 2 -2 1 2 5 4 0 LAND (KM) 1252 1335 1421 1484 1494 1455 1363 1330 1364 1474 1695 1976 1852 1463 1101 829 650 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.8 11.7 13.5 15.5 17.5 19.0 20.1 20.7 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.8 114.7 115.4 116.1 117.1 118.3 120.1 122.7 125.8 129.4 133.2 137.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 9 12 15 16 17 17 19 18 18 16 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 30 29 29 29 30 29 16 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 29. 31. 32. 31. 29. 26. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 23. 21. 18. 14. 10. 7. 5. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 25. 37. 48. 56. 57. 53. 46. 39. 31. 23. 18. 15. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.0 112.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 08/03/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.73 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.44 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.0% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 19.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 25.1% 9.6% 6.6% 2.9% 7.0% 11.6% 22.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 2.4% 0.3% Consensus: 1.3% 16.4% 9.2% 2.2% 1.0% 9.5% 11.1% 7.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 19.0% 10.0% 2.0% 1.0% 10.0% 20.0% 14.0% SDCON: 1.1% 17.7% 9.6% 2.1% 1.0% 9.7% 15.5% 10.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 08/03/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##