* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * INVEST EP902025 08/02/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 36 42 49 63 76 86 88 84 79 74 66 59 52 48 42 V (KT) LAND 25 30 36 42 49 63 76 86 88 84 79 74 66 59 52 48 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 35 39 49 61 71 73 67 58 50 44 38 34 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 7 6 3 3 3 14 17 18 14 11 14 16 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -4 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 38 107 108 115 91 80 142 166 177 179 168 184 176 180 203 193 190 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.7 27.6 25.7 25.5 24.6 25.3 25.1 24.5 23.8 23.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 148 146 147 147 142 142 122 120 111 117 115 108 101 100 102 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 73 73 74 72 71 73 72 68 62 58 53 49 47 46 44 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 9 11 13 18 20 22 21 21 20 18 17 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 3 15 19 21 24 30 60 74 78 95 101 105 87 78 56 37 8 200 MB DIV 65 71 80 65 82 76 49 -15 19 36 5 1 -11 -14 -9 -11 -9 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -4 1 10 2 -3 -5 -3 -1 3 1 LAND (KM) 966 1015 1074 1164 1237 1276 1320 1387 1508 1657 1886 2153 2069 1832 1609 1422 1277 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.3 13.0 14.0 15.3 16.4 17.3 17.6 17.4 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.8 110.6 111.6 112.8 113.9 116.1 118.3 120.7 123.5 126.5 129.7 132.7 135.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 9 11 11 11 11 13 14 15 15 15 13 12 10 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 33 32 31 32 31 29 28 15 8 3 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 17. 24. 29. 32. 34. 35. 34. 33. 31. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 11. 18. 22. 21. 20. 18. 13. 11. 8. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 24. 38. 51. 61. 63. 59. 54. 49. 41. 34. 27. 23. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 109.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP902025 INVEST 08/02/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.78 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.75 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -6.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.6% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 25.2% 25.1% 0.0% Logistic: 9.8% 40.3% 27.7% 17.1% 5.9% 29.7% 43.2% 34.5% Bayesian: 3.1% 27.7% 12.0% 3.4% 0.4% 12.8% 16.7% 0.7% Consensus: 4.3% 30.9% 19.8% 6.8% 2.1% 22.6% 28.3% 11.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902025 INVEST 08/02/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##