* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * SONIA EP182025 10/26/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 43 42 37 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 43 42 37 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 41 36 29 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 18 19 22 24 22 24 24 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 -3 0 0 2 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 183 186 178 187 180 183 205 192 198 190 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.4 25.5 26.5 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 130 128 127 125 122 116 118 128 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 67 65 60 58 53 52 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 17 16 14 11 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 8 11 21 20 10 7 -7 -8 -17 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 0 18 17 1 10 12 -2 33 9 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 1 3 4 3 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1461 1464 1468 1491 1508 1541 1621 1756 1862 2020 2207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.8 15.1 15.0 15.2 15.0 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.1 120.3 120.8 121.2 122.3 123.7 125.3 127.0 128.9 130.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 14 13 12 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -12. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -2. -3. -8. -15. -24. -31. -37. -40. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.6 119.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182025 SONIA 10/26/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.45 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.43 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 13.8% 11.8% 9.1% 6.4% 13.6% 11.5% 4.6% Logistic: 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.0% 4.0% 3.1% 2.2% 4.6% 3.8% 1.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.6% 2.8% 2.4% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182025 SONIA 10/26/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##