* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * SONIA EP182025 10/26/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 49 47 42 35 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 49 47 42 35 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 46 46 42 37 31 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 16 17 14 18 18 24 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -5 -5 -3 -1 1 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 165 175 187 173 178 176 193 188 187 192 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.3 25.6 25.4 26.1 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 130 129 128 126 125 118 116 124 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.5 -55.0 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 68 68 62 60 52 47 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 18 18 18 15 13 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 5 8 13 17 9 9 1 -3 -16 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 28 -13 -5 2 24 20 -2 20 25 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 1 4 6 3 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1448 1458 1469 1487 1507 1526 1569 1699 1793 1922 2098 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.4 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.0 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.4 119.7 119.9 120.3 120.7 121.6 122.8 124.5 125.9 127.6 129.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 5 5 7 7 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 15 14 13 13 11 10 9 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -7. -11. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 2. -3. -10. -19. -27. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.4 119.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182025 SONIA 10/26/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.46 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.23 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 18.4% 15.0% 11.9% 8.8% 17.6% 15.1% 6.8% Logistic: 1.8% 7.6% 2.2% 1.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.7% 5.7% 4.3% 3.3% 6.0% 5.1% 2.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 7.8% 4.8% 3.6% 3.1% 4.5% 3.5% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182025 SONIA 10/26/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##