* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * SONIA EP182025 10/26/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 50 50 47 41 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 49 50 50 47 41 32 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 47 47 46 43 38 33 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 13 15 13 15 19 24 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -1 -3 -2 0 0 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 182 156 151 172 165 179 155 174 178 188 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.4 25.7 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 128 128 129 127 125 122 117 119 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 64 66 63 59 55 46 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 19 19 20 18 16 13 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 9 12 15 17 19 11 11 1 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 68 37 24 25 12 -1 13 28 16 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -2 0 0 2 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1419 1447 1476 1483 1491 1506 1540 1629 1765 1893 2005 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.0 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.1 119.6 120.0 120.2 120.4 121.3 122.4 123.7 125.5 127.2 128.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 2 4 6 6 7 9 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 14 13 11 10 9 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -4. -8. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -4. -13. -22. -28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.5 119.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182025 SONIA 10/26/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.47 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 19.9% 16.1% 12.7% 9.6% 18.4% 15.9% 6.8% Logistic: 1.0% 5.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.6% 6.0% 4.5% 3.4% 6.2% 5.3% 2.4% DTOPS: 3.0% 14.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.0% 13.0% 3.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.4% 11.3% 7.0% 5.2% 4.2% 9.6% 4.1% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182025 SONIA 10/26/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##