* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * SONIA EP182025 10/25/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 53 56 60 61 58 52 42 33 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 50 53 56 60 61 58 52 42 33 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 54 55 56 53 48 42 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 12 10 11 11 14 14 13 20 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -5 -2 2 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 199 182 189 181 181 194 175 174 180 184 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.3 26.3 25.7 25.4 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 132 131 128 128 125 125 119 117 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 65 65 64 60 57 52 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 15 18 19 18 17 14 13 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 12 17 20 18 21 12 17 1 3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 83 81 54 28 16 10 22 11 30 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 2 4 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1384 1407 1431 1457 1483 1499 1507 1560 1637 1770 1946 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.7 14.1 14.7 15.1 15.3 15.2 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.1 119.5 119.9 120.2 120.8 121.7 122.9 124.1 125.7 127.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 3 5 5 6 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 15 14 13 11 10 9 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 4. 4. 5. 2. -1. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 15. 16. 13. 7. -3. -12. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.5 118.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182025 SONIA 10/25/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.48 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.33 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 35.4% 22.3% 17.1% 12.8% 24.0% 20.0% 9.3% Logistic: 5.2% 19.9% 11.2% 5.4% 3.6% 1.7% 0.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 5.3% 2.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.4% 19.4% 11.6% 7.7% 5.5% 8.6% 6.9% 3.5% DTOPS: 8.0% 15.0% 11.0% 7.0% 6.0% 9.0% 6.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.2% 17.2% 11.3% 7.3% 5.7% 8.8% 6.4% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182025 SONIA 10/25/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##