* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * SONIA EP182025 10/25/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 60 64 67 66 58 49 38 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 60 64 67 66 58 49 38 31 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 51 56 59 61 63 62 57 49 41 33 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 9 11 11 10 13 15 13 14 18 21 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 0 4 4 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 197 193 192 174 168 187 186 186 172 176 184 204 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.6 26.0 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 133 132 131 128 125 123 121 119 123 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.7 -54.9 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 65 65 65 64 58 57 51 47 43 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 16 18 16 14 11 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 7 5 10 14 21 20 13 12 -3 -7 -13 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 61 65 59 48 37 15 -1 14 19 36 7 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 4 6 5 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1339 1367 1397 1429 1462 1491 1486 1497 1498 1591 1746 1900 2036 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.6 15.7 15.4 15.0 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.3 118.8 119.3 119.7 120.5 121.0 121.8 122.6 123.9 125.6 127.3 128.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 18 17 16 15 13 12 11 9 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 5. 0. -2. -6. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 21. 13. 4. -7. -14. -21. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.4 117.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182025 SONIA 10/25/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.51 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 7.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -8.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.9% 43.6% 35.3% 22.7% 14.0% 27.9% 23.6% 10.6% Logistic: 22.9% 46.0% 31.4% 18.8% 13.5% 7.5% 2.4% 2.7% Bayesian: 30.5% 12.8% 6.1% 3.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 24.7% 34.1% 24.3% 14.8% 9.8% 12.0% 8.7% 4.4% DTOPS: 10.0% 21.0% 15.0% 12.0% 10.0% 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% SDCON: 17.3% 27.5% 19.6% 13.4% 9.9% 9.0% 7.3% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182025 SONIA 10/25/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##