* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * SONIA EP182025 10/25/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 41 44 47 49 50 48 44 36 29 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 39 41 44 47 49 50 48 44 36 29 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 42 43 43 42 38 33 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 3 7 9 9 11 17 17 13 16 22 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 -4 2 2 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 199 198 193 191 203 204 189 174 173 169 179 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.5 26.5 26.2 25.6 25.7 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 136 134 132 130 130 126 127 124 118 120 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 64 65 65 68 63 60 54 49 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 10 11 13 14 15 15 13 10 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 13 14 13 16 25 15 17 4 2 -4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 47 65 65 55 -3 15 0 37 27 21 31 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 5 6 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1320 1356 1394 1421 1448 1484 1491 1495 1531 1598 1687 1809 1998 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.4 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.2 117.9 118.5 119.0 119.4 120.0 120.6 121.4 122.4 123.6 124.9 126.5 128.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 17 16 15 14 13 11 10 9 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 5. 7. 7. 4. 0. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 13. 9. 1. -6. -13. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.2 117.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182025 SONIA 10/25/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.60 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.14 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.95 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 25.8% 19.6% 15.6% 11.7% 21.7% 18.6% 11.1% Logistic: 21.3% 52.8% 36.8% 22.0% 12.8% 10.4% 2.8% 2.9% Bayesian: 6.0% 6.0% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 13.3% 28.2% 19.5% 12.8% 8.2% 10.8% 7.2% 4.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 7.6% 17.1% 11.7% 7.4% 5.1% 6.4% 5.1% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182025 SONIA 10/25/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##