* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * EIGHTEEN EP182025 10/25/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 38 40 41 40 35 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 38 40 41 40 35 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 33 32 31 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 8 11 11 15 16 16 15 18 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -5 -4 -1 3 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 184 175 169 177 183 201 194 193 168 185 166 174 198 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.4 25.8 25.6 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 137 137 134 133 132 128 126 126 120 118 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.5 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 61 62 63 64 66 66 60 58 49 42 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 12 14 15 15 14 11 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 13 13 15 14 19 21 22 16 18 1 2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 34 46 47 54 21 5 33 13 21 18 5 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 2 6 5 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1267 1297 1330 1366 1404 1438 1452 1489 1488 1536 1645 1768 1891 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.5 13.7 14.1 14.3 15.0 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 117.1 117.8 118.4 118.9 119.6 120.2 120.9 121.8 122.9 124.3 125.8 127.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 20 19 18 17 15 14 12 11 9 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 7. 2. -2. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 5. -1. -7. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 116.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182025 EIGHTEEN 10/25/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.65 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.70 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.7 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.25 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 19.7% 16.1% 12.7% 0.0% 18.8% 16.6% 10.9% Logistic: 3.9% 20.3% 10.2% 4.6% 2.0% 3.0% 1.2% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 13.5% 8.8% 5.8% 0.7% 7.3% 5.9% 4.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% SDCON: 2.7% 8.7% 5.4% 3.4% 0.8% 4.1% 4.4% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182025 EIGHTEEN 10/25/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##