* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * EIGHTEEN EP182025 10/24/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 37 38 42 45 46 43 38 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 37 38 42 45 46 43 38 32 26 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 32 32 33 33 33 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 7 3 11 7 11 13 22 27 29 26 22 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 -5 -2 0 2 3 1 2 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 192 192 206 224 205 254 175 189 218 202 208 188 196 208 227 239 247 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.0 25.5 24.9 25.0 25.3 24.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 139 137 134 129 127 128 127 127 122 117 111 112 115 105 103 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.2 -55.7 -55.9 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 60 62 62 63 63 65 65 68 64 59 55 48 41 37 33 31 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 13 14 15 14 12 9 6 5 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 19 10 9 14 20 27 20 18 5 8 3 10 -9 -21 -32 200 MB DIV 21 25 22 28 26 58 31 1 14 28 2 1 -1 -13 3 -7 -7 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 3 7 5 7 10 10 14 9 LAND (KM) 1230 1284 1332 1376 1409 1489 1547 1584 1607 1610 1606 1606 1612 1643 1670 1687 1709 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.2 13.0 13.0 13.3 13.7 14.4 15.4 16.4 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.6 117.4 118.1 118.6 119.5 120.3 121.1 121.9 122.8 123.8 124.8 125.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 20 18 17 15 13 12 11 11 9 5 3 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 22. 20. 18. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 7. 9. 8. 4. 0. -3. -4. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 12. 15. 16. 13. 8. 2. -4. -10. -15. -20. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 115.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182025 EIGHTEEN 10/24/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.66 6.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.0 58.2 to 0.0 0.91 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 21.2% 16.1% 12.4% 0.0% 19.0% 17.1% 11.6% Logistic: 5.6% 30.7% 16.1% 7.6% 2.7% 5.4% 2.5% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 17.8% 10.8% 6.7% 0.9% 8.1% 6.6% 6.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 3.1% 10.9% 6.4% 3.8% 0.9% 4.5% 4.8% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182025 EIGHTEEN 10/24/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##