* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * RAYMOND EP172025 10/10/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 42 43 43 41 40 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 42 42 43 43 41 40 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 43 43 41 36 31 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 31 28 23 19 17 11 1 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 9 11 11 4 3 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 77 81 85 83 71 63 61 151 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.1 28.3 29.5 30.7 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 158 154 147 148 161 171 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 7 4 6 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 85 84 82 79 72 67 60 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 13 13 13 12 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 66 54 56 68 54 39 42 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 119 67 77 53 40 4 12 53 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 0 3 -2 -6 -7 -9 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 146 132 122 126 192 221 4 35 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.6 19.4 21.1 23.2 25.5 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.9 103.2 104.4 105.8 107.2 109.2 110.2 110.7 110.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 16 14 12 12 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 40 38 36 35 24 25 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -8. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -3. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.3 101.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172025 RAYMOND 10/10/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172025 RAYMOND 10/10/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##