* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * RAYMOND EP172025 10/09/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 46 47 48 48 48 47 45 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 46 47 48 48 48 41 41 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 45 48 48 48 44 39 32 31 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 32 31 27 18 16 13 6 9 25 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 6 10 10 9 1 8 4 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 81 82 89 83 64 55 76 206 222 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.4 28.5 28.9 30.8 31.3 31.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 157 158 153 150 150 154 171 171 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 5 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 87 86 85 83 81 75 69 62 51 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 10 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 69 69 60 63 70 39 29 56 63 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 126 124 77 71 51 11 25 54 94 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -7 -2 2 -6 -6 -3 -5 2 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 115 137 131 125 135 302 94 -18 74 -36 -201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.1 18.0 18.8 20.4 22.1 24.2 26.3 28.2 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.1 102.3 103.4 104.7 106.1 108.6 110.2 110.9 110.7 110.5 110.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 15 15 13 11 11 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 40 40 38 36 28 21 18 29 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 8. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -12. -15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. -6. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.2 101.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172025 RAYMOND 10/09/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 7.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.5% 3.6% 2.0% 1.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172025 RAYMOND 10/09/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##