* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * SEVENTEEN EP172025 10/09/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 46 50 50 46 41 36 39 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 46 50 50 46 36 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 34 33 31 27 23 21 21 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 28 30 25 25 16 17 11 6 18 38 59 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 1 5 9 10 1 1 2 2 8 0 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 79 83 89 88 65 53 98 208 232 224 222 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.4 28.8 28.3 26.9 28.0 30.6 29.7 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 162 164 162 161 153 147 132 145 172 163 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -51.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 7 4 4 3 4 3 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 86 87 86 86 82 76 67 62 57 50 44 46 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 15 17 17 15 12 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 59 72 60 57 77 50 31 49 53 68 39 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 105 100 74 80 34 11 28 28 64 96 82 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 3 0 -6 -4 -4 -16 -13 -13 -8 3 27 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 84 94 111 93 113 254 142 118 11 -25 -51 -207 -380 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 14 12 9 9 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 40 40 39 38 32 18 9 6 12 19 17 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 14. 16. 16. 15. 15. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -8. -7. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 20. 20. 16. 11. 6. 9. 13. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.1 100.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172025 SEVENTEEN 10/09/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 17.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 1.1% 3.8% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 4.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 4.7% 2.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.7% 2.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172025 SEVENTEEN 10/09/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##