* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/05/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 71 76 82 83 79 72 64 56 46 39 31 25 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 71 76 82 83 79 72 64 56 46 39 31 25 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 67 68 70 72 71 66 60 53 43 34 26 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 21 17 15 20 13 17 13 17 11 9 3 13 26 33 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 1 0 0 2 6 6 5 11 9 SHEAR DIR 74 83 83 87 71 75 70 75 97 117 110 143 178 172 202 208 211 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.1 27.4 26.6 25.1 24.1 23.4 23.1 23.0 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 153 154 152 150 150 144 137 129 113 102 93 89 89 85 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 72 73 73 76 76 73 69 70 69 70 68 68 60 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 29 27 29 30 31 31 32 31 31 29 27 24 23 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 54 56 57 49 42 49 41 78 81 103 88 82 43 69 58 71 70 200 MB DIV 135 145 141 144 109 87 35 42 42 51 42 0 -2 8 14 47 68 700-850 TADV -1 -2 1 0 -2 -4 -1 -5 0 1 3 11 5 0 0 -14 -29 LAND (KM) 395 381 369 368 372 379 416 337 339 368 361 394 353 349 345 348 347 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.4 18.5 19.2 20.1 20.8 21.7 22.9 24.0 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.1 107.2 107.5 107.8 108.7 109.8 111.2 112.4 113.6 115.0 116.2 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 3 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 33 32 29 24 19 14 8 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 10. 15. 13. 7. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 21. 27. 28. 24. 17. 9. 1. -9. -16. -24. -30. -36. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.3 106.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/05/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.58 12.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -12.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.82 10.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 11.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 7.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.28 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.0% 63.3% 49.8% 39.8% 25.3% 39.6% 24.9% 12.1% Logistic: 3.1% 11.5% 3.9% 2.7% 1.6% 2.2% 2.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 5.9% 3.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 26.9% 19.0% 14.6% 9.2% 14.0% 9.3% 4.1% DTOPS: 29.0% 58.0% 43.0% 33.0% 25.0% 46.0% 25.0% 1.0% SDCON: 19.1% 42.4% 31.0% 23.8% 17.1% 30.0% 17.1% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/05/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##