* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * PRISCILLA EP162025 10/05/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 60 66 75 80 76 69 62 55 48 40 33 29 22 15 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 60 66 75 80 76 69 62 55 48 40 33 29 22 15 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 54 58 65 69 68 65 59 53 46 39 32 26 21 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 19 23 18 17 19 23 14 18 11 12 8 18 26 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 -1 -2 0 0 2 -2 2 5 4 5 9 SHEAR DIR 43 58 66 72 86 77 77 68 79 92 113 120 135 144 168 202 213 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.0 27.0 26.1 24.9 23.7 23.3 23.2 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 154 155 154 153 150 151 144 133 123 110 97 92 91 88 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 73 72 72 72 72 75 71 65 67 64 63 59 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 24 27 28 30 32 30 30 31 30 30 27 26 25 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 44 55 55 58 63 46 54 45 71 85 99 81 77 57 56 9 17 200 MB DIV 122 108 141 159 142 107 58 27 25 46 42 18 -4 -23 26 32 16 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 1 3 15 22 11 8 -6 LAND (KM) 457 443 428 402 376 368 404 415 347 332 338 321 323 256 239 241 281 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.2 18.1 19.2 20.0 21.0 22.2 23.4 24.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.6 106.7 106.8 106.9 106.9 107.6 108.7 110.0 111.2 112.5 113.8 114.9 115.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 4 6 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 35 35 35 31 24 18 14 8 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 60.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 6. 4. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 6. 4. 3. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 15. 8. 1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 20. 26. 35. 40. 36. 29. 22. 15. 8. -0. -7. -11. -18. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.5 106.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/05/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.37 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 72.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -8.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.82 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.31 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.7% 35.8% 26.9% 17.9% 13.8% 27.4% 27.7% 14.8% Logistic: 2.7% 7.5% 2.5% 1.6% 0.6% 4.3% 14.7% 1.2% Bayesian: 2.6% 11.8% 8.8% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% Consensus: 6.3% 18.4% 12.7% 7.5% 5.1% 10.6% 14.2% 5.6% DTOPS: 14.0% 59.0% 42.0% 28.0% 22.0% 31.0% 36.0% 10.0% SDCON: 10.1% 38.7% 27.3% 17.7% 13.5% 20.8% 25.1% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162025 PRISCILLA 10/05/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##