* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/02/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 56 55 55 55 55 56 56 54 51 50 47 42 38 31 29 V (KT) LAND 55 55 56 55 55 55 55 56 56 54 51 50 47 42 38 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 54 52 51 50 52 53 53 52 50 48 43 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 22 23 24 16 8 7 2 1 3 11 28 32 36 36 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -4 -3 -4 -3 0 -4 -2 -3 0 -4 -10 -9 0 5 9 SHEAR DIR 89 90 88 88 99 96 108 60 120 194 176 106 102 94 88 79 86 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.0 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 27.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 137 137 136 135 132 136 132 131 131 130 129 130 129 134 140 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 70 70 66 64 63 66 64 62 55 53 57 62 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 19 19 20 18 19 19 19 18 18 17 17 16 13 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 42 50 56 53 55 41 36 25 27 20 22 67 131 124 114 200 MB DIV 26 16 -4 -29 3 -9 -6 -31 -24 -26 -1 4 57 79 63 11 11 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 2 1 3 4 4 LAND (KM) 1449 1461 1475 1503 1532 1614 1643 1684 1683 1629 1536 1460 1409 1328 1212 1095 987 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.2 118.8 119.5 120.1 121.6 122.8 123.8 124.3 124.0 123.0 122.1 121.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 2 4 4 4 4 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 22 21 20 20 19 18 16 16 17 16 16 19 23 25 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -9. -7. -5. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -13. -17. -24. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.0 117.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/02/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.44 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.27 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 18.4% 14.3% 11.2% 8.5% 15.7% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 7.0% 4.9% 3.8% 2.9% 5.3% 4.6% 0.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.2% 6.0% 3.9% 3.4% 3.4% 3.1% 2.8% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/02/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##