* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/02/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 52 51 50 51 52 54 54 52 50 46 41 39 37 33 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 52 51 50 51 52 54 54 52 50 46 41 39 37 33 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 53 52 50 48 47 48 50 51 49 46 42 38 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 23 22 23 23 20 12 3 3 3 7 11 16 28 28 27 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -4 -2 -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 1 0 -12 -7 0 10 SHEAR DIR 83 89 92 89 89 104 97 89 60 135 158 143 120 108 102 87 98 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.2 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.0 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 136 136 137 140 135 135 132 130 129 129 126 126 124 122 125 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 68 71 70 71 72 65 67 66 66 62 59 53 53 55 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 20 20 18 17 17 18 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 38 44 45 52 60 50 49 38 34 35 43 39 38 111 141 143 200 MB DIV 21 19 23 9 0 -1 3 2 -1 -12 -1 26 18 50 43 36 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 1 1 -1 3 LAND (KM) 1395 1403 1415 1426 1439 1507 1572 1592 1660 1662 1583 1505 1443 1353 1269 1167 1058 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.4 118.0 118.5 118.9 120.3 121.9 122.9 124.2 124.5 123.8 123.0 122.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 6 8 7 6 4 2 4 4 4 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 23 23 21 19 18 16 15 16 15 14 13 15 15 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -12. -10. -8. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. 1. -0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -16. -18. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.1 116.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/02/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.44 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.27 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 15.1% 12.9% 10.3% 8.0% 13.9% 12.4% 7.6% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.3% 4.3% 3.5% 2.7% 4.7% 4.2% 2.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 13.0% 6.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.5% 5.6% 3.6% 3.7% 3.8% 8.8% 5.1% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/02/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##