* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/01/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 56 56 57 56 56 58 55 55 51 48 44 41 37 32 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 56 56 57 56 56 58 55 55 51 48 44 41 37 32 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 57 57 57 56 56 56 57 57 55 50 45 41 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 23 20 19 17 15 8 3 3 4 8 7 19 25 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 -5 -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 -1 0 0 4 -2 -10 0 1 SHEAR DIR 71 81 87 94 83 95 101 84 60 192 163 175 180 126 117 103 86 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.8 27.7 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.4 25.8 25.9 25.8 26.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 137 136 136 141 140 135 132 126 126 124 118 121 121 123 128 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 66 69 71 73 71 70 67 68 65 66 66 60 51 49 50 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 17 19 18 19 18 18 19 18 20 19 19 18 18 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 32 38 46 47 53 64 61 56 47 46 39 43 43 45 82 149 129 200 MB DIV 14 9 15 17 -4 18 15 20 -7 0 1 -6 -1 8 52 17 3 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 1394 1395 1400 1401 1403 1462 1522 1552 1613 1608 1545 1499 1471 1383 1236 1126 1036 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.5 15.3 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.7 117.3 117.7 118.1 119.7 121.0 122.1 123.8 124.2 123.6 123.3 123.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 6 8 6 7 6 2 2 2 2 7 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 24 24 23 21 19 17 15 15 14 11 10 10 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. -0. 1. -0. -0. 1. -0. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 3. 0. -0. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.8 116.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/01/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.44 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 19.4% 15.8% 12.7% 9.7% 17.3% 14.6% 8.9% Logistic: 0.4% 2.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.4% 5.4% 4.3% 3.4% 5.8% 5.0% 3.3% DTOPS: 4.0% 5.0% 3.0% 4.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 3.8% 6.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.7% 3.9% 3.5% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/01/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##