* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/01/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 61 63 64 63 64 64 66 64 66 64 61 54 48 43 40 V (KT) LAND 55 59 61 63 64 63 64 64 66 64 66 64 61 54 48 43 40 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 65 66 66 65 65 65 66 66 64 60 53 46 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 23 21 18 16 12 8 5 2 6 8 16 21 21 22 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -5 0 -4 -1 -4 0 0 0 -1 2 -1 3 3 SHEAR DIR 79 73 80 93 93 81 90 69 79 129 163 145 146 113 119 89 83 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.4 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 136 134 134 137 136 130 131 128 126 124 122 121 120 134 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 69 72 74 75 74 74 68 69 72 71 67 63 60 59 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 18 18 18 19 18 19 19 21 21 21 19 18 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 40 47 50 59 67 57 57 52 44 40 35 28 81 138 117 200 MB DIV 43 31 15 29 19 -16 25 31 25 10 16 16 30 24 22 33 25 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 2 0 LAND (KM) 1402 1377 1354 1357 1363 1387 1461 1526 1536 1545 1528 1467 1354 1291 1253 1174 1017 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.4 115.7 116.1 116.7 117.3 118.4 119.8 121.2 122.0 122.7 123.0 122.5 121.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 4 5 4 5 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 25 25 25 25 23 20 19 18 17 15 14 15 17 20 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -9. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. -0. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 11. 9. 11. 9. 6. -1. -7. -12. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.4 115.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/01/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.43 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.21 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 24.8% 19.3% 15.7% 11.7% 20.2% 16.1% 9.0% Logistic: 2.1% 6.7% 1.4% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 7.0% 6.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 11.1% 6.9% 5.5% 4.7% 7.1% 7.7% 5.2% DTOPS: 24.0% 24.0% 14.0% 18.0% 21.0% 6.0% 4.0% 0.0% SDCON: 14.8% 17.5% 10.4% 11.7% 12.8% 6.5% 5.8% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/01/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##