* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/01/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 53 53 54 55 57 59 63 62 60 57 54 49 45 43 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 53 53 54 55 57 59 63 62 60 57 54 49 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 56 56 56 56 55 56 59 61 61 60 57 52 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 23 22 21 21 17 13 11 5 5 7 7 7 17 27 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -1 -2 -3 1 -4 -3 -6 -3 -3 0 -7 -8 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 87 82 76 79 89 79 82 84 97 58 96 126 164 111 116 99 98 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 137 136 135 132 136 139 134 130 128 128 124 123 126 122 123 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 74 70 74 75 75 76 70 70 70 71 68 65 58 54 57 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 15 16 16 16 16 16 19 18 19 18 19 18 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR 39 36 42 48 54 62 74 73 69 67 56 42 34 30 24 94 125 200 MB DIV 62 61 46 37 52 7 31 46 30 26 39 -7 12 -6 35 83 70 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 1398 1367 1313 1305 1300 1320 1368 1445 1488 1511 1510 1470 1384 1340 1319 1236 1082 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.5 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.6 14.9 15.0 15.3 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.6 114.8 115.0 115.5 116.0 117.2 118.5 120.0 121.3 122.0 122.1 121.9 121.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 2 1 3 3 3 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 23 19 18 18 17 14 14 18 21 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 3. 4. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 13. 12. 10. 7. 4. -1. -5. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 10.9 114.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/01/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.48 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.27 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 16.9% 14.9% 12.2% 9.3% 17.8% 14.5% 8.8% Logistic: 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 2.4% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.0% 5.0% 4.1% 3.1% 6.0% 5.6% 3.8% DTOPS: 5.0% 7.0% 4.0% 6.0% 7.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.3% 6.5% 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 3.5% 3.8% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/01/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##