* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 10/01/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 42 44 47 48 48 47 48 49 48 46 44 42 40 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 42 44 47 48 48 47 48 49 48 46 44 42 40 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 41 41 42 41 41 42 44 47 49 50 50 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 27 23 22 20 19 15 13 13 9 8 3 4 8 14 15 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -3 0 -5 1 -3 -5 -8 -6 -7 -5 -5 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 87 88 88 82 85 91 86 79 87 92 84 51 140 116 110 86 93 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.1 27.1 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 137 137 137 133 134 138 137 133 131 130 123 122 120 117 117 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.3 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 71 74 71 74 76 76 74 71 71 72 70 67 63 58 53 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 15 17 16 16 15 15 16 16 16 17 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 44 40 39 46 53 62 82 83 81 77 67 52 44 42 37 23 86 200 MB DIV 46 59 54 51 49 55 47 35 25 24 39 19 29 38 27 37 89 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 1398 1371 1342 1301 1261 1292 1315 1362 1445 1475 1440 1419 1376 1323 1249 1183 1120 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.5 114.7 115.0 115.2 116.4 117.7 119.0 120.4 121.1 121.1 121.3 121.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 7 7 7 5 2 2 3 2 4 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 26 26 27 26 27 25 21 20 19 18 14 13 16 17 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 16. 14. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 10.5 114.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 10/01/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.57 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 15.5% 13.0% 10.1% 7.5% 15.9% 15.4% 10.5% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 3.5% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.9% 5.7% 4.4% 3.4% 2.5% 5.4% 6.3% 5.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 8.0% 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% SDCON: 2.4% 6.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.2% 3.7% 5.1% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 10/01/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##