* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 09/30/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 42 42 41 41 42 42 42 41 41 40 39 38 37 36 37 V (KT) LAND 40 42 42 42 41 41 42 42 42 41 41 40 39 38 37 36 37 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 44 44 44 43 44 43 43 42 42 43 44 46 46 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 24 27 26 26 21 19 19 19 13 13 9 7 10 11 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -3 -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -4 -7 -8 -6 -6 -6 -3 3 3 SHEAR DIR 83 83 82 82 76 85 72 69 84 76 70 97 122 117 108 93 98 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.0 27.4 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.4 25.9 25.8 26.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 138 137 137 135 132 136 137 132 128 124 120 119 125 133 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 74 73 77 76 78 74 71 68 70 66 65 61 56 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 14 15 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 44 46 41 42 47 57 70 81 91 87 71 62 46 40 30 32 44 200 MB DIV 30 38 62 45 41 69 47 57 64 62 28 35 42 33 21 29 76 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1409 1395 1382 1347 1314 1268 1271 1286 1344 1383 1383 1348 1293 1229 1135 1036 931 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.7 12.5 13.0 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.8 15.3 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.0 114.2 114.3 114.3 114.9 116.0 117.1 118.4 119.4 120.0 120.1 119.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 25 22 21 20 19 19 19 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. 15. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -20. -21. -21. -20. -18. -16. -13. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 9.9 113.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 09/30/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.57 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.20 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.37 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 15.1% 13.0% 10.3% 7.6% 15.9% 15.4% 10.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 1.2% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.6% 4.4% 3.5% 2.6% 5.4% 5.5% 4.4% DTOPS: 2.0% 7.0% 3.0% 3.0% 4.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% SDCON: 2.6% 6.3% 3.7% 3.2% 3.3% 3.7% 4.2% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 09/30/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##