* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * OCTAVE EP152025 09/30/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 37 37 37 38 41 46 51 51 53 54 50 48 47 45 43 V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 37 37 38 41 46 51 51 53 54 50 48 47 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 37 37 36 37 39 41 43 46 48 50 49 48 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 24 27 26 25 17 14 14 15 15 15 15 13 16 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 -2 -5 -4 -2 -1 -5 -6 -8 -3 -6 -3 -6 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 77 84 83 80 79 78 77 65 64 64 77 71 90 76 93 105 95 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.1 27.4 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 137 137 137 138 133 136 140 139 135 131 127 125 130 135 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 70 72 72 74 77 78 79 78 72 68 69 69 67 64 61 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 14 13 13 14 16 18 17 18 19 19 19 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 39 46 47 45 47 59 70 88 88 89 84 71 52 43 34 34 79 200 MB DIV 25 22 50 80 73 79 56 80 66 63 46 12 2 -2 -8 22 52 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 1415 1399 1384 1347 1312 1264 1226 1269 1297 1354 1421 1418 1342 1267 1182 1091 979 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.9 10.3 10.9 11.4 12.3 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.6 113.8 113.9 114.0 114.3 115.1 116.5 117.7 118.9 120.1 120.5 120.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 6 6 4 2 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 28 26 23 21 21 22 24 23 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 25. 25. 24. 22. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 5. 4. 4. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 16. 18. 19. 15. 13. 12. 10. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.5 113.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 OCTAVE 09/30/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.61 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.21 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.22 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 12.6% 11.0% 8.5% 6.2% 13.9% 14.6% 10.6% Logistic: 0.3% 2.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 1.3% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 2.5% 5.0% 3.8% 2.9% 2.1% 4.7% 5.3% 4.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.7% 4.5% 2.9% 2.4% 2.0% 2.8% 4.1% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 OCTAVE 09/30/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##