* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * FIFTEEN EP152025 09/30/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 32 31 30 32 35 39 39 40 40 36 36 34 30 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 32 31 30 32 35 39 39 40 40 36 36 34 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 28 29 30 31 32 32 33 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 22 22 23 28 32 30 22 18 21 16 9 15 17 16 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 4 8 SHEAR DIR 66 69 74 78 79 72 71 52 60 81 108 112 125 125 122 96 96 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.0 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 135 135 135 136 137 140 139 131 128 129 128 128 129 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 71 70 71 75 76 79 76 74 72 74 68 63 59 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 14 13 11 11 13 14 16 15 16 17 17 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 41 39 44 43 43 51 56 73 79 84 68 62 62 54 58 63 66 200 MB DIV 49 39 33 49 62 68 89 111 96 85 102 81 88 76 48 49 61 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 -4 -1 0 1 5 5 4 1 3 LAND (KM) 1413 1440 1450 1440 1415 1367 1321 1281 1221 1108 979 870 792 737 728 718 733 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.3 12.3 13.7 15.0 16.1 16.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.4 113.8 114.0 114.0 113.8 113.5 113.5 113.7 114.0 114.1 114.1 113.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 4 6 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 27 27 26 26 26 26 28 30 28 22 18 16 16 16 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. 27. 24. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -16. -24. -28. -30. -30. -29. -28. -25. -21. -20. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 8. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 2. 5. 9. 9. 10. 10. 6. 6. 4. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.3 113.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152025 FIFTEEN 09/30/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.64 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.23 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.23 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 58.2 to 0.0 0.99 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 10.1% 9.1% 6.8% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.9% 3.1% 2.3% 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% SDCON: 1.0% 3.4% 2.0% 1.6% 0.5% 2.2% 1.0% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152025 FIFTEEN 09/30/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##