* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/28/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 30 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 30 26 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 7 15 19 17 20 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -1 -2 -4 -2 -6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 47 57 88 158 198 231 239 230 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 23.7 23.4 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.6 22.8 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 97 94 90 88 85 84 88 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 41 37 33 31 30 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 16 14 13 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -5 -3 -7 3 5 -14 -15 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 5 11 16 -3 -36 -15 -11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -5 -2 0 0 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1368 1324 1281 1244 1208 1180 1175 1196 1252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.4 21.7 22.0 22.5 22.9 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.5 125.4 125.3 125.1 124.9 124.8 125.1 125.6 126.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -12. -17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -18. -24. -30. -35. -40. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.1 125.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/28/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.24 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.58 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 321.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 -2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.2 58.2 to 0.0 0.70 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.38 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 5.2% 5.0% 2.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/28/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##