* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/28/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 43 36 31 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 43 36 31 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 43 37 33 29 24 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 6 4 10 18 17 21 26 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 8 4 1 -1 -3 -1 -5 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 51 36 45 89 108 197 226 234 233 223 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.3 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.5 23.2 22.8 22.8 22.9 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 104 100 99 97 94 91 87 87 88 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 48 46 44 41 33 32 29 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 20 20 19 16 14 13 11 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 18 6 3 1 11 15 -3 -9 -26 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -38 -41 -8 12 12 -17 -35 -10 -3 25 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 0 4 9 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1466 1436 1406 1366 1326 1269 1218 1198 1198 1214 1235 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.8 21.4 21.8 22.4 23.2 23.8 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.6 125.7 125.8 125.7 125.6 125.4 125.1 125.3 125.8 126.3 126.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -19. -23. -30. -35. -41. -46. -49. -54. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.9 125.6 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/28/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.18 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.43 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 393.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.46 -0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 58.2 to 0.0 0.96 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.2% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/28/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##