* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/28/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 53 47 42 33 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 59 53 47 42 33 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 58 52 47 42 34 28 24 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 3 6 7 5 6 15 18 16 20 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 10 10 8 5 1 0 0 0 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 53 44 56 90 162 215 245 241 234 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.6 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.7 23.4 23.1 22.8 22.9 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 107 102 99 97 96 93 90 87 89 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 48 45 42 35 31 30 29 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 22 21 20 18 16 14 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 42 27 16 16 15 25 12 -4 -18 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -27 -30 3 10 16 -27 -20 -11 18 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -5 -5 -3 0 0 1 4 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1512 1493 1475 1438 1403 1324 1284 1245 1205 1210 1244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.9 20.4 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.9 23.5 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.8 126.0 126.2 126.2 126.2 125.9 125.8 125.7 125.7 126.1 126.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -26. -32. -37. -41. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -22. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -23. -32. -40. -48. -54. -59. -64. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 18.5 125.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/28/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.07 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.32 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 484.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.36 -1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.1 58.2 to 0.0 0.98 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 9.1% 8.5% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.3% 3.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/28/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##