* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/27/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 61 54 49 41 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 66 61 54 49 41 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 65 59 53 48 39 32 28 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 5 7 6 4 10 16 15 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 13 11 9 11 3 0 -1 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 69 38 39 54 147 219 240 238 228 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.0 24.6 24.2 23.9 23.8 23.4 22.9 22.7 22.8 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 111 106 102 99 98 93 88 86 87 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 51 50 48 42 36 36 33 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 23 23 22 18 17 16 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 44 41 26 17 9 14 14 -7 -19 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -8 -20 -30 -2 21 -8 -25 -8 4 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -4 -1 -5 -5 -3 0 1 4 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1511 1504 1497 1459 1422 1336 1265 1210 1175 1169 1182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.9 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.4 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.4 125.7 126.0 126.0 126.0 125.8 125.5 125.3 125.3 125.6 126.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -20. -27. -34. -39. -45. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -16. -21. -29. -39. -45. -51. -56. -61. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.1 125.4 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/27/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.06 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.22 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 468.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.38 -1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.08 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 7.2% 7.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 2.7% 2.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/27/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##