* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/27/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 73 67 60 49 40 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 77 73 67 60 49 40 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 71 65 59 48 39 33 28 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 5 8 5 4 14 15 13 18 27 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 14 15 12 9 8 0 0 1 1 -1 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 58 85 41 46 80 193 224 243 241 237 204 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.7 24.3 23.6 23.2 23.0 22.9 22.9 23.1 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 115 112 110 108 104 96 91 89 88 89 92 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 55 52 51 47 41 37 36 35 32 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 61 48 43 34 12 4 13 -4 -25 -31 -52 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -12 5 -20 -28 4 -3 -29 -3 -12 9 11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -4 -2 -5 -4 -1 1 1 9 12 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1482 1488 1496 1474 1451 1355 1269 1212 1172 1149 1140 1144 1100 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.5 19.0 19.4 20.5 21.4 21.9 22.4 23.1 24.0 25.1 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.7 125.2 125.6 125.7 125.9 125.7 125.4 125.1 125.0 125.2 125.6 126.1 126.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -22. -30. -38. -45. -50. -56. -61. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -18. -21. -23. -24. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -20. -31. -40. -50. -57. -63. -68. -72. -77. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.8 124.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/27/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.02 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.16 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 489.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.35 -1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.53 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 3.2% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 1.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/27/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##