* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/27/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 74 68 62 50 40 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 77 74 68 62 50 40 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 72 66 60 49 40 33 28 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 7 7 6 3 10 16 15 18 20 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 11 14 12 11 3 1 -3 -1 -3 -3 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 51 47 40 59 54 41 108 209 238 248 233 212 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.5 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.6 24.2 23.9 23.5 23.1 22.9 22.9 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 114 112 110 107 102 98 94 90 88 89 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 58 56 54 52 49 42 35 34 33 33 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 28 26 26 22 20 17 15 13 11 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 66 64 52 48 31 20 25 22 -7 -21 -49 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -12 -2 10 -9 -12 5 -19 -22 -14 1 20 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -6 -6 -3 -3 -4 -2 1 0 5 12 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1471 1486 1503 1504 1504 1439 1346 1303 1254 1201 1171 1154 1186 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.2 18.6 18.9 20.0 21.0 21.4 21.9 22.5 23.2 24.1 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.2 124.8 125.4 125.7 126.1 126.3 126.0 125.8 125.6 125.4 125.5 125.8 126.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -20. -28. -35. -41. -47. -53. -58. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -20. -23. -25. -27. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -12. -18. -30. -40. -50. -59. -67. -72. -76. -81. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.5 124.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/27/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.04 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.17 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 484.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.36 -1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.48 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 9.3% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 4.0% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 2.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/27/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##