* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/27/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 77 73 67 55 45 36 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 77 73 67 55 45 36 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 78 74 68 62 51 42 35 30 27 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 5 12 12 13 15 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 12 13 14 11 6 1 0 0 1 0 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 61 57 51 41 56 25 54 187 229 250 228 224 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.1 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.7 24.5 24.1 23.8 23.6 23.4 23.2 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 124 118 115 112 107 106 100 96 94 92 91 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 56 53 50 45 39 34 34 34 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 29 29 27 25 22 19 18 15 13 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 76 70 70 64 48 32 27 31 13 -9 -25 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -3 0 5 15 -8 11 21 -23 -16 -18 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -10 -7 -6 -4 -3 -5 0 2 2 6 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1418 1454 1490 1503 1520 1490 1420 1335 1290 1263 1239 1234 1229 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.5 19.4 20.4 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.1 124.0 124.8 125.4 125.9 126.4 126.4 126.1 125.8 125.7 125.7 125.9 126.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -17. -24. -31. -38. -44. -50. -55. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -7. -13. -16. -20. -22. -24. -25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -13. -25. -35. -44. -51. -59. -65. -71. -76. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.2 123.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/27/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.09 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.16 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 444.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.40 -2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 10.5% 9.3% 7.1% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 5.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 5.2% 4.0% 2.6% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.5% 2.6% 2.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/27/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##