* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/26/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 76 71 67 56 45 38 29 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 76 71 67 56 45 38 29 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 78 75 70 64 53 44 36 31 27 25 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 15 11 10 8 7 6 1 11 16 15 16 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 8 10 16 14 9 3 2 -2 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 58 59 45 57 72 48 218 228 235 242 230 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.6 24.4 24.1 24.0 23.7 23.4 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 121 118 115 112 107 104 99 98 95 93 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 58 53 49 45 40 35 34 33 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 31 32 30 30 28 24 21 18 16 13 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 77 83 79 76 61 40 26 20 14 0 -14 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -2 -5 -5 2 0 13 17 -25 -44 -3 -1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -11 -8 -6 -3 -4 0 1 1 2 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1367 1430 1478 1508 1542 1543 1473 1388 1339 1310 1280 1247 1185 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.9 20.1 21.0 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.3 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.2 123.3 124.3 125.1 125.8 126.6 126.8 126.5 126.3 126.1 125.9 125.8 125.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 6 6 5 4 2 1 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -21. -28. -35. -40. -46. -51. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -8. -14. -20. -23. -25. -26. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -9. -13. -24. -35. -42. -51. -58. -65. -68. -73. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.9 122.2 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/26/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.13 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.14 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 424.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.43 -2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 9.3% 8.5% 6.5% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 4.5% 3.4% 2.3% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 2.7% 1.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/26/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##