* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/26/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 76 73 68 59 49 40 33 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 76 73 68 59 49 40 33 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 78 75 71 66 57 47 38 32 27 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 16 11 10 9 7 1 8 14 18 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 4 7 11 17 15 8 4 3 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 54 41 55 65 84 49 120 252 251 256 252 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 26.7 26.0 26.0 25.9 25.1 24.3 24.3 24.1 23.6 23.1 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 131 123 122 121 112 103 102 100 95 90 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 59 58 57 55 48 45 40 36 34 35 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 30 31 29 28 25 22 19 16 13 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 82 84 93 90 77 64 42 31 21 -17 -30 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -12 -1 4 0 22 3 21 8 -40 -22 -16 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -8 -9 -6 -3 -2 -1 1 0 1 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1313 1391 1469 1507 1550 1596 1564 1467 1412 1344 1259 1207 1206 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.4 19.5 20.7 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.7 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.6 123.8 124.7 125.5 126.8 127.4 127.2 127.0 126.5 125.8 125.6 126.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 8 8 6 6 5 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 8 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -10. -17. -24. -30. -35. -41. -47. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -23. -24. -24. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -12. -21. -31. -40. -47. -54. -60. -65. -70. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.7 121.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/26/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.18 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.16 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.44 -2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 10.1% 9.2% 7.2% 5.4% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 3.9% 3.3% 2.4% 1.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.0% 2.9% 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/26/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##