* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/26/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 75 72 68 61 53 45 38 31 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 75 72 68 61 53 45 38 31 25 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 76 73 69 60 51 42 35 30 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 17 16 12 10 5 5 5 15 21 22 26 25 33 31 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 6 5 9 15 20 11 5 8 0 -2 -5 0 -5 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 74 64 53 53 58 71 70 45 210 234 236 229 225 222 219 228 225 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.2 26.0 25.8 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.9 23.3 23.4 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 141 136 125 122 120 105 103 101 99 95 90 89 94 94 94 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.6 -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 60 56 51 47 41 35 32 31 34 38 38 33 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 32 32 30 30 27 24 21 19 16 14 13 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 61 63 77 84 97 88 75 61 43 38 20 -2 -32 -53 -46 -60 -68 200 MB DIV -15 -6 -3 7 11 16 -4 9 13 -39 -30 -20 -11 -1 -30 -10 -4 700-850 TADV -9 -8 -8 -7 -7 -7 -1 -3 1 0 1 3 9 5 3 4 5 LAND (KM) 1253 1317 1390 1469 1530 1603 1590 1553 1475 1406 1350 1280 1207 1184 1187 1173 1213 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.8 18.8 19.9 20.7 21.4 21.9 22.5 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.0 121.2 122.4 123.6 124.8 126.3 127.1 127.6 127.3 127.0 126.7 126.3 125.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 10 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 6 7 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 12 11 9 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -14. -20. -26. -31. -37. -43. -48. -52. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -4. -8. -14. -17. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -19. -27. -35. -42. -49. -55. -60. -65. -70. -75. -82. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.3 120.0 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/26/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.23 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.12 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 386.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.47 -2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.6 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 8.7% 8.5% 6.7% 5.1% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 3.3% 3.0% 2.3% 1.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 3.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/26/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##