* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/26/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 75 74 69 62 52 47 39 32 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 75 74 69 62 52 47 39 32 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 76 73 69 60 52 43 36 30 25 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 17 16 16 11 7 6 2 12 18 18 23 29 36 33 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 7 6 13 22 12 3 4 0 -4 -9 -6 -8 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 85 75 59 46 42 40 54 26 147 243 246 241 224 221 206 217 224 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.6 26.7 25.8 25.7 24.8 24.2 23.9 23.4 22.9 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.0 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 141 131 121 118 109 103 99 94 89 88 87 88 89 90 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 64 63 60 60 54 47 44 36 34 33 33 35 36 32 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 31 31 32 31 30 27 26 23 20 18 17 16 14 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 68 64 71 85 91 98 81 63 44 29 1 -22 -34 -33 -44 -58 -81 200 MB DIV 3 -21 -15 -4 10 1 12 6 8 -8 -37 -4 -18 12 -13 -21 -15 700-850 TADV -7 -9 -8 -9 -8 -4 -1 0 0 0 0 2 1 4 0 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1168 1235 1313 1391 1469 1557 1582 1543 1459 1362 1254 1162 1090 1054 1064 1044 1025 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.9 18.8 19.8 21.1 22.0 22.5 23.2 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.7 120.1 121.4 122.6 123.8 125.8 127.0 127.4 127.4 126.9 126.0 125.4 125.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 9 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 12 11 10 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -7. -13. -19. -25. -31. -37. -43. -48. -53. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -0. -1. -5. -7. -13. -17. -20. -19. -19. -19. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -11. -18. -28. -33. -41. -48. -54. -58. -63. -69. -75. -84. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.3 118.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/26/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.24 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.12 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 -2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.10 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.6 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 9.8% 8.8% 6.9% 5.1% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 4.2% 3.2% 2.3% 1.7% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 10.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.5% 7.1% 4.1% 2.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/26/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##