* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/25/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 77 75 74 66 59 53 46 39 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 77 75 74 66 59 53 46 39 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 78 75 72 64 56 47 39 32 27 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 16 18 15 12 12 9 5 4 9 18 19 21 24 33 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 7 8 7 9 15 15 7 -1 5 0 -3 0 0 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 73 77 67 52 45 46 48 68 38 230 249 224 217 225 219 224 228 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.6 25.9 25.4 25.1 24.4 24.2 23.5 22.9 22.9 22.8 22.7 22.6 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 141 142 140 141 122 116 112 105 103 95 88 88 88 87 84 82 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 64 60 58 52 49 44 39 37 36 34 35 32 27 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 32 34 35 33 32 30 27 23 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 73 74 73 74 90 102 83 73 50 30 10 -7 -14 -17 -21 -13 -29 200 MB DIV 9 10 -8 -6 8 16 9 4 15 -7 -39 -3 -20 0 10 -19 -47 700-850 TADV -10 -8 -9 -8 -8 -7 -6 -1 -2 0 1 1 2 1 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1074 1168 1243 1309 1384 1506 1543 1530 1480 1382 1268 1194 1174 1091 990 932 932 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.5 19.4 20.5 21.5 22.4 23.1 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.7 120.1 121.3 122.6 124.8 126.2 126.9 127.2 126.8 126.1 125.7 125.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 12 9 7 6 5 6 5 3 4 6 5 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 15 12 11 8 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. -0. -5. -11. -17. -22. -28. -35. -41. -46. -51. -56. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -2. -6. -12. -16. -17. -18. -18. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -14. -21. -27. -33. -41. -48. -53. -60. -66. -71. -80. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.1 117.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/25/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.27 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.11 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 322.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 -2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.12 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 10.6% 9.1% 7.1% 5.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 4.2% 3.2% 2.4% 1.8% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 19.0% 11.0% 7.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.1% 11.6% 7.1% 4.7% 3.4% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/25/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##