* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/25/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 79 78 76 70 68 60 57 51 44 38 32 27 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 79 78 76 70 68 60 57 51 44 38 32 27 21 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 78 76 74 68 62 55 47 41 35 31 28 25 22 19 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 16 16 16 16 10 8 5 4 6 9 13 12 16 24 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 4 7 5 11 15 8 3 4 3 -2 -3 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 53 66 83 68 51 47 43 66 32 125 235 236 231 205 210 213 224 SST (C) 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 26.9 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.4 23.7 23.0 22.9 22.8 22.6 22.4 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 144 141 139 133 120 113 109 105 97 90 89 87 85 84 81 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 66 62 58 55 51 47 41 37 36 33 32 33 30 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 32 32 33 32 35 31 31 28 26 23 21 20 17 15 11 850 MB ENV VOR 68 69 78 77 75 99 91 84 68 58 37 23 -2 -6 -23 -6 2 200 MB DIV 9 4 16 10 7 18 17 9 22 20 -4 -30 -13 -13 8 -4 6 700-850 TADV -12 -9 -5 -7 -7 -7 -5 0 -1 -2 1 1 1 0 1 -3 -6 LAND (KM) 985 1067 1160 1217 1282 1414 1496 1497 1439 1363 1274 1178 1091 1011 944 884 821 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.7 17.0 17.6 18.1 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 22.9 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.9 117.2 118.6 119.9 121.2 123.5 125.2 126.1 126.3 126.2 125.9 125.4 124.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 10 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 19 15 12 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -14. -20. -25. -31. -37. -43. -48. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -4. -2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 4. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -12. -20. -23. -29. -36. -42. -48. -53. -59. -67. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 16.0 115.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/25/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.29 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.15 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 -3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 13.7% 10.9% 8.5% 6.5% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 5.7% 3.8% 2.9% 2.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.3% 7.3% 4.4% 2.9% 2.6% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/25/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##