* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/25/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 79 78 76 73 71 68 59 52 46 40 35 30 23 N/A V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 79 78 76 73 71 68 59 52 46 40 35 30 23 N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 77 76 74 71 67 62 54 47 40 35 32 29 26 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 19 15 13 16 14 4 6 5 5 3 8 9 12 16 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 3 5 7 7 20 6 6 5 2 2 0 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 56 53 61 76 61 50 71 89 49 69 176 236 196 217 218 218 222 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.6 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 25.8 25.3 24.9 24.3 23.6 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.1 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 151 145 143 140 137 120 114 109 103 95 93 92 92 91 87 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 75 71 66 64 57 56 50 46 42 39 39 37 35 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 32 33 33 35 34 34 33 29 26 24 21 20 19 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR 76 71 69 77 67 71 88 73 69 43 31 15 5 -7 -3 -17 -20 200 MB DIV 46 12 -1 32 27 26 19 19 -1 16 -26 -4 8 -2 -12 -2 -18 700-850 TADV -12 -10 -7 -6 -9 -8 -8 -2 -1 -5 -1 1 0 2 5 2 1 LAND (KM) 929 984 1051 1124 1204 1313 1418 1442 1397 1313 1224 1143 1092 1034 971 899 822 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.6 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.8 17.4 18.4 19.2 20.1 21.0 21.8 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.1 115.3 116.5 117.8 119.1 121.4 123.3 124.8 125.0 124.8 124.5 124.2 123.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 12 11 9 6 4 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 26 22 19 12 10 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -5. -10. -16. -21. -26. -32. -37. -41. -46. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -5. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. -1. -5. -7. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -21. -28. -33. -40. -45. -50. -57. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.5 114.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/25/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.31 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.19 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.21 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 13.1% 10.0% 7.7% 6.2% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.3% 3.5% 2.6% 2.1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.5% 5.6% 3.2% 2.3% 2.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/25/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##