* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/25/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 74 73 74 74 76 78 73 70 63 57 50 46 41 34 27 V (KT) LAND 80 76 74 73 74 74 76 78 73 70 63 57 50 46 41 34 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 75 73 72 70 69 65 59 53 47 40 36 32 29 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 16 17 14 17 10 11 9 8 2 2 4 7 6 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 6 6 5 4 7 11 10 2 7 2 2 1 0 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 55 53 53 64 66 45 47 84 74 39 116 227 216 238 226 220 212 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.6 28.1 28.0 27.7 26.6 26.1 25.2 24.6 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.3 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 147 152 146 145 141 128 122 113 106 98 96 93 92 92 90 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 75 77 75 75 68 67 62 60 53 47 42 41 38 34 35 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 34 33 31 28 25 23 21 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 77 83 77 69 74 58 84 86 66 56 46 32 16 0 11 5 -13 200 MB DIV 81 67 37 21 33 22 17 31 38 25 -1 -26 3 5 4 -11 -13 700-850 TADV -11 -15 -10 -9 -8 -11 -8 -6 0 -2 -5 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 914 943 986 1054 1136 1269 1359 1419 1374 1305 1222 1116 1003 960 978 944 852 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.7 16.2 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.9 115.0 116.4 117.7 120.1 122.1 123.7 124.1 124.2 124.0 123.5 122.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 12 11 9 7 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 29 27 25 17 12 8 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -8. -12. -17. -22. -27. -32. -37. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 10. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. -2. -7. -10. -17. -23. -30. -34. -39. -46. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.1 112.7 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/25/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.33 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.14 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 8.8% 7.7% 5.9% 5.1% 5.6% 4.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.2% 2.6% 2.0% 1.7% 1.9% 1.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/25/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##