* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/24/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 78 76 75 73 74 75 76 73 67 58 51 45 41 36 29 V (KT) LAND 85 81 78 76 75 73 74 75 76 73 67 58 51 45 41 36 29 V (KT) LGEM 85 82 80 77 76 72 69 67 62 55 47 39 34 30 27 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 22 17 16 13 12 12 11 12 6 3 4 4 8 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 5 6 5 9 9 16 12 7 4 1 1 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 66 63 62 61 59 73 43 65 64 90 72 73 173 249 241 214 191 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.5 27.9 27.8 27.4 26.1 25.7 24.6 23.7 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.2 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 148 150 144 142 137 122 119 107 97 94 93 93 91 88 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 77 74 72 65 62 56 52 46 38 35 35 35 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 28 29 31 33 33 34 34 31 28 26 24 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 87 91 95 82 75 70 78 100 80 78 76 67 53 32 10 15 4 200 MB DIV 91 84 66 38 11 37 36 39 24 17 14 -49 -11 -3 -3 -7 2 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -9 -8 -8 -8 -7 -9 -6 -2 -2 -2 0 1 2 2 -3 LAND (KM) 865 917 959 1001 1058 1229 1336 1412 1422 1358 1222 1109 1049 990 955 897 835 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.6 17.4 18.0 19.0 20.4 21.5 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.8 113.0 114.1 115.3 116.6 119.1 121.5 123.2 124.1 124.3 123.9 123.5 123.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 7 5 6 7 4 3 2 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 29 29 27 21 13 10 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -4. -9. -14. -19. -24. -30. -35. -40. -45. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 10. 9. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -11. -10. -9. -12. -18. -27. -34. -40. -44. -49. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.1 111.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/24/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.30 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.06 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.24 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.6 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 10.1% 8.3% 6.3% 5.2% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 3.6% 2.8% 2.1% 1.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 2.3% 1.4% 1.0% 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/24/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##