* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/24/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 88 87 87 86 86 91 90 83 80 69 60 51 44 39 31 V (KT) LAND 90 89 88 87 87 86 86 91 90 83 80 69 60 51 44 39 31 V (KT) LGEM 90 91 91 89 88 85 82 80 75 66 57 47 40 34 30 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 25 24 18 13 13 11 8 6 7 2 4 3 9 9 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 3 5 4 6 5 13 16 8 2 0 -2 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 65 59 60 63 62 62 50 57 50 56 53 338 334 291 256 262 227 SST (C) 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 27.9 27.9 27.6 26.0 25.4 24.5 23.8 23.0 22.9 22.9 22.6 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 150 150 151 144 144 140 122 115 106 99 90 88 87 86 85 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -51.8 -51.2 -51.8 -51.3 -51.8 -51.2 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 71 73 72 74 73 67 60 54 52 49 40 34 32 34 35 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 28 29 32 33 37 38 36 37 34 31 28 24 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 82 96 97 101 86 84 80 100 100 92 98 103 98 79 43 50 39 200 MB DIV 80 67 71 66 47 18 45 36 29 35 25 -35 -37 -43 -21 12 15 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -5 -12 -10 -7 -9 -6 -4 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 807 902 943 983 1035 1181 1325 1384 1407 1373 1282 1177 1070 998 955 880 775 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.7 16.1 17.1 18.1 18.9 19.9 21.1 22.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.3 113.5 114.6 115.7 118.3 120.8 122.6 124.0 124.4 124.2 124.0 123.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 12 13 11 9 6 5 6 7 5 3 2 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 29 30 29 25 16 12 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -11. -16. -22. -27. -33. -39. -44. -50. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -15. -14. -12. -10. -7. -5. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 16. 20. 17. 18. 12. 8. 4. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 1. 0. -7. -10. -21. -30. -39. -46. -51. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.1 111.1 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/24/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.27 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.02 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.49 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.6 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 13.2% 10.7% 8.5% 6.7% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 4.8% 3.6% 2.9% 2.2% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.2% 2.9% 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/24/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##