* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/24/25 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 96 96 96 94 92 92 89 88 79 69 58 48 42 34 25 V (KT) LAND 90 93 96 96 96 94 92 92 89 88 79 69 58 48 42 34 25 V (KT) LGEM 90 95 97 96 95 92 88 84 79 74 65 54 45 38 33 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 26 19 22 20 15 12 16 8 9 9 7 1 7 7 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 4 2 3 1 4 7 11 10 5 0 0 -1 2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 69 72 65 62 61 60 64 52 62 27 28 30 182 283 217 225 233 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 27.6 27.5 27.6 26.7 25.5 24.0 23.3 23.0 23.0 22.7 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 152 150 150 151 140 139 139 128 116 101 93 89 89 87 92 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 73 73 73 69 64 60 55 47 40 32 32 31 28 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 27 29 31 33 36 37 39 36 34 29 25 23 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 63 84 90 102 105 87 96 93 107 99 114 141 120 91 84 59 39 200 MB DIV 83 80 71 83 66 28 19 35 6 14 -4 -27 -31 -42 -25 -17 -22 700-850 TADV -1 0 -5 -7 -14 -10 -11 -8 -8 0 3 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 699 796 889 927 978 1087 1241 1313 1348 1324 1259 1146 1010 921 874 792 685 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.6 18.5 19.5 20.8 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.9 111.1 112.2 113.4 114.5 116.9 119.4 121.2 122.6 123.3 123.5 123.3 122.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 10 9 7 5 6 7 6 3 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 28 29 30 27 20 14 9 6 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -10. -14. -19. -24. -29. -35. -40. -46. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -14. -14. -11. -9. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 16. 18. 21. 17. 12. 6. 1. -1. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 2. -1. -2. -11. -21. -32. -42. -48. -56. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.2 109.9 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/24/25 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.27 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.05 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.25 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.6 0.65 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 19.3% 15.1% 12.2% 9.3% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 6.0% 1.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 9.1% 5.4% 4.4% 3.2% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 15.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 10.5% 6.0% 3.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/24/25 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##