* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/24/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 88 90 90 89 91 91 89 88 87 80 68 58 50 39 28 V (KT) LAND 85 87 88 90 90 89 91 91 89 88 87 80 68 58 50 39 28 V (KT) LGEM 85 88 90 90 90 88 86 83 80 76 72 66 55 47 40 33 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 24 27 22 22 17 10 11 9 4 1 5 6 9 11 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 0 1 5 1 7 9 7 8 5 -2 -2 4 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 68 66 69 68 69 66 61 76 85 30 357 29 89 221 203 198 212 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.5 26.5 25.1 24.1 23.5 23.2 22.9 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 155 153 151 151 144 139 137 137 126 112 101 94 91 88 83 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 -51.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 72 72 73 72 67 62 57 52 45 36 31 23 18 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 24 26 27 28 31 32 33 35 36 35 30 26 23 19 14 850 MB ENV VOR 58 63 83 87 89 89 84 81 100 100 106 124 123 111 106 87 75 200 MB DIV 89 74 70 70 64 39 34 29 25 34 33 0 -17 -19 -46 -23 -15 700-850 TADV 1 -1 0 -3 -6 -9 -8 -7 -5 -2 1 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 607 699 798 891 931 1029 1159 1243 1328 1340 1276 1197 1130 1063 1011 938 853 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.5 17.1 18.0 19.0 20.0 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.9 111.0 112.1 113.2 115.6 118.0 120.1 121.9 122.9 123.2 123.2 123.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 10 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 33 30 28 28 29 29 25 16 11 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -26. -31. -37. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -14. -13. -10. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 15. 9. 3. 1. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. -5. -17. -27. -35. -46. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 15.3 108.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/24/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.33 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.06 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.6 2.7 to 107.8 0.26 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.6 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 18.6% 14.5% 11.7% 8.9% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 4.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 8.7% 5.1% 4.1% 3.1% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 19.0% 10.0% 5.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 11.9% 9.3% 5.0% 4.0% 4.5% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/24/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##