* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/23/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 83 86 89 93 97 95 94 88 82 75 64 54 48 41 35 V (KT) LAND 75 80 83 86 89 93 97 95 94 88 82 75 64 54 48 41 35 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 83 85 86 89 90 88 82 74 68 62 53 44 39 35 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 23 26 23 18 12 11 14 8 9 9 7 5 2 5 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 0 0 4 4 6 8 9 8 4 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 59 68 65 65 64 70 56 57 60 56 30 356 16 152 303 222 263 SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.7 27.5 27.2 27.6 26.7 25.4 24.1 23.7 23.3 23.1 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 155 155 153 150 152 140 136 139 129 115 101 96 92 92 85 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 74 72 72 71 68 63 62 57 50 43 36 32 33 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 24 27 30 34 34 38 37 37 36 32 28 25 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 52 62 63 82 89 101 90 91 90 108 103 104 116 110 104 78 38 200 MB DIV 72 102 72 71 67 56 37 42 17 -1 32 12 4 -16 -36 -25 -29 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 1 -2 -9 -11 -12 -10 -6 -4 2 0 0 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 531 600 676 780 885 964 1073 1204 1267 1333 1316 1266 1168 1123 1094 1006 847 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.3 15.2 15.3 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.7 18.6 19.5 20.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.8 109.7 110.9 112.1 114.4 116.7 119.1 121.0 122.5 123.3 123.6 123.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 12 11 12 11 11 9 7 5 5 4 3 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 33 31 28 28 30 28 19 12 9 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -20. -25. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 15. 22. 22. 20. 18. 12. 6. 3. -0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 14. 18. 22. 20. 19. 13. 7. 0. -11. -21. -27. -34. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.4 107.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/23/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.44 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.10 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 2.7 to 107.8 0.27 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.6 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.2% 23.2% 17.6% 14.3% 11.0% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 7.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.9% 11.6% 6.3% 5.2% 3.8% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 31.0% 17.0% 11.0% 9.0% 10.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 18.9% 14.3% 8.6% 7.1% 6.9% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/23/25 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##