* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/23/25 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 86 88 90 93 94 98 94 93 86 77 72 64 56 49 41 V (KT) LAND 75 81 86 88 90 93 94 98 94 93 86 77 72 64 56 49 41 V (KT) LGEM 75 83 89 92 94 96 95 92 86 78 70 60 52 43 35 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 19 20 26 21 19 9 15 14 11 10 8 3 6 8 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 3 -2 0 4 4 6 8 15 16 4 -1 -4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 62 59 68 71 71 76 74 58 58 74 55 44 30 111 265 245 216 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.2 29.2 28.7 28.6 27.9 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.0 24.6 23.4 22.9 23.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 162 157 157 152 151 144 138 137 135 121 107 94 89 90 90 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 74 74 72 73 71 74 71 65 60 55 51 43 34 30 27 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 22 21 23 27 29 33 33 36 35 33 33 31 27 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 49 54 68 68 83 89 98 91 93 103 105 97 106 96 82 77 48 200 MB DIV 33 39 62 47 44 47 38 53 45 9 28 40 8 -17 -17 -38 -23 700-850 TADV -2 -3 1 0 1 -1 -7 -11 -11 -5 -1 2 2 -2 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 438 504 583 674 770 900 996 1120 1242 1313 1338 1290 1213 1131 1059 990 910 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.3 18.1 19.1 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.8 108.8 109.9 110.9 113.2 115.5 117.8 120.2 121.9 123.0 123.5 123.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 8 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 38 35 33 30 28 28 29 23 15 11 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 428 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -5. -8. -12. -17. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 11. 19. 21. 25. 22. 17. 16. 12. 7. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 13. 15. 18. 19. 23. 19. 18. 11. 2. -3. -11. -19. -26. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.8 106.8 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/23/25 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.47 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.20 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -5.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.29 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.6 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.5% 24.3% 19.3% 16.1% 12.3% 18.7% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 9.2% 2.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.9% 1.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 5.7% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.2% 13.0% 7.1% 5.9% 4.4% 6.6% 4.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 45.0% 33.0% 21.0% 22.0% 18.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 30.1% 23.0% 14.0% 13.9% 11.2% 7.3% 2.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/23/25 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##