* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/23/25 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 69 77 83 92 99 99 98 92 86 77 71 61 54 47 40 V (KT) LAND 55 62 69 77 83 92 99 99 98 92 86 77 71 61 54 47 40 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 72 77 86 93 94 92 83 74 65 54 44 36 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 16 20 22 22 18 16 14 16 18 15 10 6 2 2 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 0 0 1 2 6 4 10 9 12 16 9 5 2 1 SHEAR DIR 63 63 66 68 77 73 74 64 64 59 57 35 33 37 46 321 214 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.6 28.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 25.9 25.2 24.6 24.2 23.6 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 162 162 161 155 151 152 142 140 139 121 113 106 102 97 90 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -50.9 -51.4 -51.0 -51.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 74 76 73 73 70 68 70 67 62 55 49 47 38 30 28 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 21 22 24 29 32 35 35 36 34 35 31 28 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 57 52 57 68 75 94 105 99 115 120 125 128 116 112 113 114 118 200 MB DIV 55 51 42 48 81 39 21 48 59 44 47 23 20 5 -11 -15 -48 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 -2 0 2 -2 -8 -8 -10 -8 -3 0 1 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 297 355 418 489 576 788 895 1029 1206 1330 1440 1483 1473 1428 1353 1224 1059 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.8 16.0 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.7 106.8 107.9 109.0 111.5 114.0 116.3 118.9 121.2 123.2 124.6 125.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 10 9 7 5 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 38 34 31 26 26 26 21 15 12 8 5 5 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 430 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 9. 6. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 6. 7. 14. 22. 28. 29. 29. 25. 23. 17. 12. 9. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 8. 1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 22. 28. 37. 44. 44. 43. 37. 31. 22. 16. 6. -1. -8. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.9 104.5 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/23/25 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.65 9.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.26 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -8.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 7.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 2.7 to 107.8 0.33 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.6 0.60 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.7% 46.8% 31.7% 20.5% 13.9% 24.0% 18.5% 0.0% Logistic: 9.4% 24.5% 6.3% 5.0% 1.7% 4.9% 3.4% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 16.4% 5.7% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.4% 29.2% 14.6% 9.1% 5.5% 9.8% 7.3% 0.4% DTOPS: 26.0% 44.0% 34.0% 28.0% 17.0% 41.0% 33.0% 1.0% SDCON: 17.7% 36.6% 24.3% 18.5% 11.2% 25.4% 20.1% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/23/25 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##