* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2025 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC CLIMO USED * * NARDA EP142025 09/22/25 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 65 72 82 88 92 94 92 89 82 73 63 56 49 43 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 65 72 82 88 92 94 92 89 82 73 63 56 49 43 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 60 65 70 79 84 87 87 83 76 66 55 44 37 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 11 15 18 21 23 16 16 16 21 14 13 10 8 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 6 5 2 3 1 2 2 6 11 9 15 10 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 44 67 57 60 65 68 70 64 59 50 47 42 23 22 35 93 134 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 28.9 28.5 28.6 27.9 27.4 27.6 26.1 25.5 24.7 24.2 24.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 161 154 151 151 144 139 140 123 116 108 102 98 101 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 2 700-500 MB RH 73 73 71 74 72 70 69 70 68 64 59 52 45 39 31 26 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 18 22 25 28 31 35 37 39 39 36 32 28 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 60 58 53 59 76 81 100 112 107 125 133 145 122 113 106 108 107 200 MB DIV 51 48 44 54 77 88 45 36 75 57 65 25 10 -10 -1 -14 -22 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -1 -2 0 -1 -9 -9 -9 -10 -8 -2 1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 231 254 307 368 444 634 788 941 1089 1234 1391 1471 1450 1382 1268 1246 1307 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.5 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.3 104.4 105.6 106.7 107.9 110.1 112.7 115.5 117.7 120.1 122.5 124.2 124.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 12 11 12 10 7 5 5 4 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 44 41 39 37 33 27 24 24 21 16 13 9 6 5 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 13. 10. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 13. 20. 27. 30. 32. 29. 23. 16. 12. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 6. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 32. 38. 42. 44. 42. 39. 32. 23. 13. 6. -1. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.1 103.3 ** 2025 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142025 NARDA 09/22/25 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.69 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.31 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 2.7 to 107.8 0.34 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 58.2 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.6 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 23.7% 19.4% 16.1% 12.5% 23.2% 18.4% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 17.3% 5.7% 3.2% 0.7% 4.4% 3.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 2.2% 18.3% 4.3% 1.0% 0.4% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 6.7% 19.8% 9.8% 6.8% 4.5% 10.1% 7.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 21.0% 29.0% 20.0% 18.0% 9.0% 24.0% 24.0% 3.0% SDCON: 13.8% 24.4% 14.9% 12.4% 6.7% 17.0% 15.6% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142025 NARDA 09/22/25 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING